Transferability of Aggregate Intercity Total Demand Models

Download or read book Transferability of Aggregate Intercity Total Demand Models written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last 15 years, extensive research has been done on the transferability of travel demand models. However, much of this work has been concentrated towards investigating the transferability of disaggregate mode choice models. The transferability of an aggregate total demand model for intercity travel is examined. Model transfer is possible only when a number of preconditions for transferability are satisfied. One of the principal obstacles to the successful transfer of intercity demand models is the inability to overcome the contextual differences between calibration and application. Here, the components of the intercity total demand model are separated into exogenous and intrinsic (contextual) factors. The latter is therafter clarified as being either transferable or nontransferable. It is shown that transfereable attributes can accompany a model during transfer. Nontransferable attributes, on the other hand, will free the model of city or city-pair specific contextual characteristics which should not be transferred to other city pairs. The issues involved in transferring an aggregate model are also investigated. Aggregate data on interdistrict travel by public transportation in Sri Lanka have been used to successfully calibrate a total demand model with a number of transferable and nontransferable attributes that represent both temporal and spatial contextual factors. It is shown that the forecasting ability of this model is far superior to a counterpart model without intrinsic variables. (A0.