License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports

Download or read book License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports written by Jelle Barkema and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.