Do Taxes Matter for Long-Run Growth? Harberger's Superneutrality Conjecture

Download or read book Do Taxes Matter for Long-Run Growth? Harberger's Superneutrality Conjecture written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-08-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Harberger’s superneutrality conjecture contends that, although in theory the mix of direct and indirect taxes affects investment and growth, in practice growth effects of taxation are negligible. This paper provides evidence in support of this view by testing the predictions of endogenous growth models driven by human capital accumulation. The theoretical analysis highlights implications of different taxes for growth and investment in these models. The empirical work is based on cross-country regressions and numerical simulations, using a new methodology for estimating aggregate effective tax rates. Results show significant investment effects from income and consumption taxes that are consistent with small growth effects. The results are robust to the introduction of other growth determinants.