Demand Forecasting for Rail and Bus Services in a City

Download or read book Demand Forecasting for Rail and Bus Services in a City written by Wenfa Ng and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capacity design is a critical part of any rail and bus service project. In the case of rail services, it influences the overall cost of the project, given that size of capacity impacts on the size and design of the various train stations, the type of signalling systems to be used, and the size of the train depot. On the other hand, capacity design on bus services enjoys more flexibility. Specifically, capacity on a given bus route could be dynamically adjusted to tailor to different demand level at different times of the day through the deployment of either single deck or double decker buses. More importantly, size of bus stops is usually standardized across the city except for those in high demand areas. Hence, the problem of capacity design is a more intricate one for rail compared to bus services since it is impossible to dynamically modulate rail capacity except for increasing the speed and frequency of train services. Once designed, capacity on rail services constrains the number of carriages on each train given the size of the stations and constitutes a major source of inflexibility in rail system design and operation. While increasing speed and frequency of trains could help modulate capacity demand in an undersized system, safety of passengers and the need for greater maintenance for overused braking systems are serious concerns. Thus, capacity design or demand forecasting are especially critical for rail services. But how do we forecast current and future demand for rail services along a route? Size of population along the rail corridor is one important factor. However, considering that provision of rail services would displace users from other modes of transportation such as buses, taxis and private cars, demand forecasting becomes a nebulous art. Estimating the size of the populace that would switch to rail services involves a mixture of correlation analysis and system overdesign. Specifically, correlation analysis involves using a population level estimate of the proportion of people that would switch from individual modes of transportation to rail services, while system overdesign involves an overdesign of rail capacity by a multiplied factor. While the above approaches would provide a coarse estimate of capacity needed, use of population level matrixes for estimating the number of people switching to rail transport obviate the particular socioeconomic factors that impact on a specific locality. For example, lack of direct bus services to specific areas of a city providing employment might have prompted the use of private vehicles. But provision of a direct rail service to an industrial zone could entice more users to switch to rail public transportation especially under the context of high maintenance and usage costs of private vehicles. Hence, capacity forecast depends on a multitude of factors, most of which finicky in estimation, but which nevertheless critically impact on overall capacity needed. Demand forecast remained difficult for both rail and bus service. But, in the case of buses, ability to modulate capacity through provision of more capacity in double decker buses per unit time would help ameliorate the negative impact of any shortfall in demand forecast. The same is not true for rail services, however. But, certain amount of system overdesign such as provision of one more train carriage might help alleviate unanticipated stress on the rail system from oversubscribed demand. Interested readers may want to further develop the ideas described herein as well as expand on them.